Macroeconomics assignment question

Intermediate Macroeconomics 1

The Current State of the U.S. Economy

Here you can keep your analysis focussed on the following set of questions:

What is the current state of the economy, and what are its prospects over the near term. In particular, is it currently in a recession, or an expansion? If the economy is in recession, is the recession currently deepening, or are there signs that is it coming to an end? If the economy is in expansion, is the expansion maintaining momentum, or are there signs that it is slowing. And if the economy is already slowing, are there signs that we might be headed for a recession?

Probably a first step in addressing these questions would be an analysis of the current state of the labour market. But you have done this already, so instead, you can answer this by using your knowledge of what recessions look like: For instance

• you know what a recession is (substantial and persistent unwanted idleness), and you know the signs of a recession.
• you know what variables the NBER considers in determining whether the economy is in recession.
• you know which sectors are important by virtue of their size.
• you also know which sectors manifest the greatest cyclical volatility during recessions and expansions.

So use your knowledge of business cycles and recessions to determine whether the economy is currently near a state of full employment, and if so, are there signs that a slow-down, and possibly a recession may be developing.